Global Nuclear Arms Race Intensifies in 2026, SIPRI Warns of Rising Security Risks
Kazi Abul Monsur#
Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, the global nuclear arms race has entered a new phase. According to the SIPRI Yearbook 2026 published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), one of the world’s leading research organizations, nuclear-armed states are continuing to modernize and expand their arsenals, raising fresh concerns about global security.
According to SIPRI’s latest estimates, as of January 2026, there were approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons in existence worldwide. Russia and the United States continue to possess the overwhelming majority of these weapons. Russia currently holds an estimated 5,420 nuclear warheads, while the United States possesses around 5,042.
The report states that 1,796 Russian and 1,770 American nuclear warheads are currently deployed, with the remaining weapons maintained in military stockpiles.
SIPRI also highlighted growing concerns regarding security developments in South Asia. The institute claims that India has, for the first time, operationally deployed a portion of its nuclear arsenal. Of India’s estimated 190 nuclear warheads, approximately 12 are now considered deployed. In contrast, Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear weapons, although none have been identified as operationally deployed.
China’s nuclear capabilities are also expanding rapidly, according to the report. The country is estimated to possess approximately 620 nuclear warheads, of which around 34 are believed to be deployed. However, Beijing does not officially disclose detailed information about its nuclear arsenal.
Among European nuclear powers, the United Kingdom and France maintain significant stockpiles. The United Kingdom is estimated to possess 225 nuclear weapons, while France holds approximately 370. Of these, around 120 British and 280 French warheads are deployed aboard strategic nuclear submarines.
The report further estimates that Israel possesses approximately 90 nuclear weapons and North Korea around 60. However, no reliable information is available regarding the deployment status of their nuclear arsenals.
Recent actions by nuclear-armed states have further heightened international concerns. Russia has recently showcased the capabilities of its RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), one of the most powerful strategic weapons in its arsenal. Meanwhile, France has indicated that it may no longer publicly disclose information regarding its nuclear forces and intends to continue modernizing its strategic deterrent capabilities.
According to SIPRI, approximately 4,012 nuclear weapons are currently deployed worldwide, while thousands more remain in military stockpiles and could be made operational if required.
Experts caution that most nuclear-armed states do not publicly reveal the full extent of their strategic arsenals. As a result, SIPRI’s figures are based on extensive research, satellite imagery, intelligence assessments, and analysis of open-source information.
Analysts warn that as global nuclear competition intensifies, so too does the risk of nuclear confrontation. They argue that promoting diplomacy, mutual trust, confidence-building measures, and arms control initiatives remains essential for safeguarding global peace and preventing a catastrophic nuclear conflict.